After dealing with a relatively drier (outside of the storms and flooding weather on Wednesday), yet warmer and more humid week, this weekend’s forecast is not looking much different than what we have experienced so far. The main driver(s) this weekend will be a weak surface trough under a large high-pressure system over the East Coast and a weak cold front that will be bringing a better chance for some showers and storms by Sunday. There is a lot of moving pieces (albeit non-significant) that will play a factor in the precipitation chances this weekend. Overall, it DOES NOT appear to be a washout by any means, but if you have outdoor plans, make sure to read the rest of the blog post for a day-by-day basis!
If you need a localized wx forecast for your weekend plan/activity, please email [email protected].
SURFACE PRESSURE MAP
As mentioned, although we will see the blue ‘H’ on the map over the Northeast this weekend, there will be a weak surface trough across the central portions of the state and a cold front to our northwest, which will help to bring in the risk for localized rain chances. Overall, it will not bring overly large impacts but there will be rain/storm chances around.
Friday, August 15 – Mostly Dry but Humid
Friday in Pennsylvania will begin our weekend on a drier note for many locations. As mentioned, a surface trough and remaining moisture across south-central and southeastern PA may allow for a few isolated showers / storms during the afternoon and evening hours. But otherwise, most locations will see sun and clouds with temperatures ranging from the low-to-upper 80s. It will feel humid as well with dew point values in the upper-60s to low-70s. The highest temperature will be in Pittsburgh of 88 degrees!
AREA A – Isolated risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms (15 – 30%). Most locations will remain dry, but if you do see a storm it will be brief and shouldn’t cause much of a concern.
Saturday, August 16 – Hot, Humid, and Spotty Storms
While Saturday in Pennsylvania looks worse, it will not be as bad as it looks. The surface trough will begin to lift back northward, which will bring a risk for isolated showers and storms across much of central and portions of northeastern PA. High temperatures will range from the low-80s to low-90s. It will feel quite uncomfortable with dew point values near 70 and into the low-70s for many locations. The highest temperature will be in Pittsburgh of 90 degrees!
AREA A – Isolated risk for showers and thunderstorms (15 – 30%). Small chance in the morning with a greater risk in the afternoon and evening. Most locations look to remain dry at the moment, but if you do see a storm it will be brief and shouldn’t cause much of a concern.
Sunday, August 17 – Most Uncertain Day with Storm Potential
Sunday’s Pennsylvania forecast is the most uncertain with a bit of disagreement as we see the potential for multiple systems to track through that can bring various risks for showers and storms. Right now, I am keeping the risk ‘Isolated’ since there is not high confidence, but I will keep everyone updated throughout the weekend once I get higher confidence on where the best area of showers and storms may be. High temperatures will range from the upper-70s to the upper-80s and will likely be the most humid day with dew point values reaching into the low-to-mid 70s for many locations. It will feel quite sticky! The highest temperature will be in Philadelphia of 88 degrees!
AREA A – Right now, an isolated risk for showers and thunderstorms (15 – 30%) but some areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms (35 – 55%) may be possible once confidence increases. Severe weather and flooding is not generally expected at the moment, but cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned and keep this in the back of your mind with expected updates throughout the weekend!
SUMMARY
- Friday (Aug 15): Mostly dry with sun and clouds. Isolated PM showers/storms possible (15–30%), mainly in south-central and southeastern PA. Highs low–upper 80s, humid.
- Saturday (Aug 16): Warm and sticky. Isolated showers/storms (15–30%), better chance in the afternoon/evening, mainly central and northeast PA. Highs low 80s–low 90s.
- Sunday (Aug 17): Most uncertain day. Isolated showers/storms (15–30%), possibly becoming scattered (35–55%) in spots. Humid with highs upper 70s–upper 80s.
Bottom line: This weekend will not be a washout. Most places will stay dry much of the weekend, but keep an eye out for brief pop-up storms—especially later Saturday and Sunday. Humidity will be a constant factor all weekend.
That is all for this early preview of the Pennsylvania weekend outlook. I hope to continue to expand these to bring more details to your weekend weather. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out!
FIND YOUR LOCATION FORECAST HERE: https://paweatherplus.com/your-local-weather/
– Meteorologist Denys K
